Welcome to Business Outlook, our annual prediction of what's ahead for Santa Barbara County's economic climate. The past year was cloudy for most business sectors and the forecast calls for more of the same, at least through the middle of 2002. But compared to the thunderstorms that have struck some parts of the nation, we've suffered something more like scattered showers.

Owners of some high-tech companies, their investors and the approximately 1,000 people who lost jobs last year may beg to differ. In that sector particularly, fortunes have fallen and lives have been disrupted. Yet aerospace and defense contractors are straining to hire hundreds of people, and the medical technology niche is also thriving.

The consensus forecast says that we will not only recover but resume growing later this year. Until then, bankers will worry about lower earnings. Realtors will see slower growth in prices. Retailers will be cautious and hotel operators will work harder to keep rooms full. Farmers fear more regulation but expect a good year. Hospital officials face multimillion-dollar decisions that could remake our health-care landscape, while oil operators and environmentalists will fight over the real landscape.

We invite you to enjoy this special section and perhaps make your own forecast. Here's hoping for sunshine.

— Dave Bemis, business editor