The “Super El Niño” is here — but Santa Barbara County forecasters say the hype may be getting ahead of the science.
The National Weather Service officially classifies the current El Niño as “very strong,” with a higher than 90% chance it’ll remain that way throughout the winter, meteorologist Todd Hall said during a county virtual community meeting Thursday.
But while El Niño increases the likelihood of a wetter-than-normal winter in Southern California, Hall warned against treating it as a forecast of what the coming months will carry.
“There’s just not enough science there to make these grandiose projections,” circulating on social media and from unofficial sources, Hall said.
For Santa Barbara County, the risk of significant winter storms is in fact higher than average, “but overall it’s still low at this point,” he said.
Current seasonal outlooks indicate above-average precipitation, specifically later on in the fall and going into winter.
But historically speaking, the strength of an El Niño does not necessarily determine how wet, or destructive, a winter will be.
The strong El Niño of 2015-16 produced below-average precipitation locally.
Significant flooding during the 2022-23 winter occurred during a La Niña year, while the deadly 2018 Montecito debris flow following the Thomas Fire took place during a weak La Niña as well.
“El Nino sets the climate backdrop,” Hall said. Individual storms still need to be evaluated as they approach.
In the meantime, county agencies are preparing for the possibility of significant flooding and other impacts from the storms, although much of that work already takes place prior to every rainy season.
“County Flood Control prepares every year assuming that there’s a possibility of extreme storms and flooding,” Deputy Public Works Director Matt Griffin said.
Annual maintenance of flood control facilities and major creeks runs from August through November.
But Griffin warned that some natural creeks running through developed areas have limited capacity.
“No matter how much maintenance we do in those creeks, there’s a chance of flooding,” he said.
One thing the county is doing differently this year, Griffin said, is increasing public outreach because of the attention surrounding El Niño.
Officials also identified some areas that could be particularly more vulnerable than others.
In Guadalupe, work completed in the Santa Maria River following the 2023 storms remains in good condition, but Griffin emphasized that this is temporary and “is not an engineered improvement.”
The levee ends East of Highway 1 and leaves portions of the city within or immediately adjacent to a FEMA-designated flood hazard area.
“If we get significant flows in the Santa Maria River, Guadalupe could be at risk,” Griffin said.
Elsewhere, repairs continue along Refugio Road, where the county has spent roughly $1.5 million over the past three years. An estimated $6 million to $8 million remains, including repairs to three major slipouts near the summit.
Officials urged residents to prepare for storms regardless of what El Niño ends up bringing. County sandbag distribution is expected to begin Oct. 15, while residents can use ReadySBC to check hazards near their homes and register for emergency alerts.
“The higher than average risk doesn’t mean that a disaster or catastrophe is about to happen,” Hall said.
