Santa Barbara is likely looking at a warm and rainy winter this year, as the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an El Niño advisory—warning it could be one of the strongest ever.
Every 2-7 years Santa Barbara County experiences what is known as an El Niño year, when hotter than normal sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific drive atmospheric changes that impact many areas of the world.
Here in Santa Barbara, we tend to experience increased rainfalls and warmer winters. While not always destructive, the increased rainfall can lead to dangerous flooding.
NOAA now reports that El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to strengthen between now and winter. Measures are indicating that it could be one of the strongest on record, leading it to be dubbed a potential Super El Niño.
Super El Niños have a history of sometimes disastrous and expensive impacts. The storms intensified by the 1997-98 El Niño caused ove $1 billion in damages in California. From ecosystems to rainfall totals, El Niño can have widespread effects.
Dr. Samantha Stevenson at UC Santa Barbara focuses her research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and how climate change is impacting the cycle.
Stevenson told the News-Press that a Super El Niño tends to be classified by sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific exceeding two degrees above what is normally expected.
“What it all comes down to is how much warmer is the equator than what we normally expect it to be for winter,” Stevenson said.
In California, especially in Santa Barbara County, most of our rain in the winter comes from extreme storms. During El Niño, more storms get pushed further south, meaning more rain falls on Santa Barbara.
Stevenson also said that people in Santa Barbara can expect a warmer than usual winter.
The increased rainfall can also have positive impacts on agricultural growth. El Niño’s are sometimes referred to as “Drought Busters” Stevenson said. The concern lies more in the amount of rain, as excessive rainfall could lead to flooding.
With the potential for larger storms and flooding this winter, the News-Press talked with Lael Wageneck, spokesperson for the Santa Barbara County Public Works Department.
“We prepare for heavy rains every year regardless of the long-term forecast,” Wageneck said. Records from the department show that previous strong El Niño years have had well above average rainfall. The damaging 1998 El Niño saw rainfall total 30 inches above average in Santa Barbara County.
To mitigate flooding, the department focuses on making sure creeks can run smoothly and are clear of vegetation that could increase floods.
This year, the flood control department is focusing on 12 creeks in South County and 16 in North County. Maintenance occurs between August 1st and December 15th in order to avoid the migratory bird breeding season and minimize, or avoid, impacts to aquatic environments.
The public works department provided the News-Press with videos of past mitigation work:
Wageneck also said that disaster preparedness is a shared responsibility and that residents should visit the county’s ReadySBC web page to see how they can prepare for and mitigate flooding.
“While we build and maintain infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding, residents should also take steps to respond to potential flooding in their homes,” Wageneck said.
However, not every strong El Niño had above average rainfall. The same records, displayed below, shows that the most recent Super El Niño, in 2015, saw rainfall averages about 7 inches less than usual.
Santa Barbara City College geography professor Geordie Armstrong told the News-Press that 2015’s dry El Niño was due to above average ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean.
“The Indian Ocean also had exceptionally warm temperatures. This caused convective lifting, drawing the warm and wet air further north,” Armstrong said.
The atmospheric circulation influenced by the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures starts to compete with and impact the circulation influenced by the Pacific Ocean temperatures. The warm and wet air that would normally condense and produce rainfall in Southern California instead gets driven north.
“That year [2015] the Pacific Northwest got the rain Southern California would have gotten, so they had an extremely heavy year of rainfall while we had a lower than average year,” Armstrong told the News-Press.
This year, the temperatures in the Indian Ocean are currently in a neutral range with no indications of shifts into the above average or below average territory. Models predict that the temperatures will remain in the neutral range through mid-winter, reducing the likelihood of a dry El Niño in Southern California.
For surfers, an El Niño year can be cause for excitement. Some of the most memorable swells to hit the coast of Santa Barbara and Ventura have been during El Niño years. Major storms, strengthened by the El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific, generate powerful South swells that travel north and hit Southern California.
While South swells aren’t the most ideal for point breaks in Santa Barbara, novelty breaks like Sandspit can turn on, transforming the typically calm Santa Barbara harbor mouth into one of the best barreling waves in California. This video from SURFER Magazine shows Sandspit during a 2016 El Niño swell.
One of the major concerns of an El Niño year is not the year itself, but the one that follows. El Niños are most often followed by La Niña, which causes drier than usual conditions in Southern California, raising drought risks.
“If we have a Super El Niño, we could expect that to be followed by a dry winter,” said Stevenson.
Out of the last five strong El Niño events, three of them saw rainfall averages drop significantly in the following year as a result of a La Niña winter. A dry winter raises the risks of fire and drought in Santa Barbara.
A NOAA research publication found that a La Niña year is linked to a “greater than two-fold increase” in Southern California fire risk during the fall.
A growing question when looking at the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle is: what role does climate change play?
Stevenson told the News-Press that scientists aren’t quite sure yet. Researchers are investigating the role of climate change in the El Niño cycle. One of Stevenson’s publications found that the impacts of El Niño and La Niña’s are enhanced by a warming climate.
“Even if we had the same El Niño happen, in 50 years, it would be expected to have bigger impacts than the ones now,” Stevenson told the News-Press.
The development of this year’s El Niño is ongoing and the News-Press will continue covering the impacts on Santa Barbara County and the central coast.
