Twelve years ago, Hurricane Marie brought one of the biggest and most memorable surf swells to Southern California. Could it be time for a rerun?
As of Sept. 1, Tropical Storm Marie is forming off the coast of Mexico. The storm is expected to track north before turning left and heading west.
Despite some models suggesting a track towards the California coast, the chances of the storm making landfall in Southern California are extremely slim.
The storm could send rain and a risk of flooding to the SoCal coast. But for surfers, the question is: is there potential for it to be like the 2014 Hurricane Marie swell?
Tropical Storm Marie is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves north along the Baja California coastline but it won’t reach the same strength as 2014 Hurricane Marie.
Typing 2014 Hurricane Marie Swell into the Google search bar will soon send you on a rabbit hole of Reddit threads of people describing their experiences with the swell. Some say they saw the best waves of their life during the swell event.
Two main factors really aligned for that swell, the strength of the hurricane and the position where the hurricane was the strongest. In 2014, Hurricane Marie reached Category 5 strength and was positioned in the perfect spot to send waves towards Southern California.
Surfline posted a video on social media from the Director of Forecasting Kevin Wallis breaking down the surf forecast for the 2026 storm.
Wallis said there is a potential for solid, but not giant surf as most forecast models for the storm have it taking that left turn out to sea, pulling it away from land.
Impacts from the storm, such as rain and surf, are forecast for Sunday and Monday.
“We’re expecting, depending on the track, a good southeast swell of 6-8 feet,” National Weather Service meteorologist Rich Thompson said. That 6-8 foot swell is for Ventura and Santa Barbara coastlines.
Thompson said the chances of Marie making landfall are low.
“Legitimate chances are easily less than 5%, probably closer to 1-2% of any circulation maintaining itself and impacting anywhere in Southern California,” Thompson said.
Thompson said that they are using 2022 Hurricane Kay as a comparison due to the similarities between the two storms.
“Hurricane Kay was the most similar, it definitely will have potential for very high surf and possibilities of coastal flooding,” Thompson said.
Hurricane Kay produced a south swell, where waves approach the Santa Barbara coastline from the south. That swell angle slid waves between the Channel Islands, bringing sizable surf to Sandspit, East Beach, and underneath Stearns Wharf.
That swell angle isn’t the best for point breaks along the south county coast but novelty breaks can fire up. Beach breaks along the Pacific Coast Highway between Carpinteria and Ventura can also light up, looking more like left point-breaks than closeouts in some spots.
While the specifics of the swell will be highly dependent on the track Marie takes over the next few days, the storm should bring some waves during a time of year that usually sees smaller surf.
