Maribel Aguilera, left, and Ricardo Valencia, right, seek to fill the open seat for Fifth District Santa Barbara County Supervisors (Photos by Tom Schultz/Santa Barbara News-Press)

Santa Maria high school teacher Ricardo Valencia appeared headed to victory Tuesday in the closely watched race for Fifth District Santa Barbara County supervisor—following the latest ballot count update.

As of midday, Valencia had won 52.92% of 11,955 ballots counted in the race so far and led Maribel Aguilera by 769 votes. Aguilera, a member of the Santa Maria City Council, had won 46.48%, according to county elections officials.

With 85% of cast ballots now tallied countywide, Valencia’s lead over Aguilera appeared unbeatable.

Reached by phone, Valencia said he would not be declaring victory until every vote is counted and the election certified. The New-Press called the race Tuesday afternoon.

“I want to honor each voter,” Valencia said. “I would just tell people thank you so much for their ongoing support.”

Full results

The Democrat said his team estimated 2,000 to 3,000 votes were left to be counted in the Fifth District.

If so, that leaves Aguilera with a significantly high—and likely insurmountable—hurdle to overcome.

Valencia led on Election Night and has maintained a consistent lead through several vote tally updates in the week since.

The apparent win by Valencia, 43, represents a powerful shift in the historically right-leaning Fifth District.

The candidates sought to succeed Supervisor Steve Lavagnino, an independent and former Republican who’s retiring after 16 years.

Valencia, 43, ran as an unapologetic progressive.

In addition to the Santa Barbara County Democratic Party, Valencia received support from the Sierra Club, Planned Parenthood, the Central Coast Labor Council and several labor unions including SEIU Local 620, which represents nearly 2,200 employees across every county department.

Aguilera, 45, an independent and a business and real estate attorney, ran as a proud centrist.

Aguilera received support from the Santa Barbara County Republicans, Santa Maria police and firefighter unions, SEIU Local 721, the Central Coast Labor Council and the Grower-Shipper Association of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties.

In June, Valencia and Aguilera emerged as the top two finishers in a three-way primary, defeating Lavagnino aide Cory Bantilan and triggering a November runoff.

Tom Schultz has rejoined the News-Press. He previously worked at the newspaper from 1998 to 2007, covering government, health, crime, education, science, business, lifestyle and more. He lives in the Santa Ynez Valley. Find him at tom.schultz@newspress.com