Lower birth rates, an aging population and subdued net migration will conspire to slow population growth across Santa Barbara County in the next three decades.
But there will still be more people—especially across the North County.
The county overall will add an estimated 75,460 residents by 2060. That’s a 16.9% jump from a 2025 baseline of 447,710, according to a draft Regional Growth Forecast prepared by planners at the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments.
While noting the forecast is not a crystal ball, authors say it will help provide officials across the region with a shared understanding as they prepare long-range plans for transportation, transit and infrastructure improvements.
“To do that, you need to have a good foundation,” said Michael Becker, SBCAG director of planning, adding the forecast might also influence housing decision-making.
The 13-member SBCAG board of directors, composed of area mayors and county supervisors, will consider approving the estimates on Thursday.
Santa Maria leads
In addition to the total county population, the forecast developed in partnership with municipal planners considers growth city by city.
“Growth is not evenly distributed across the region,” according to the forecast. “Incorporated areas are expected to grow at a slightly faster rate than the county overall, and more growth is anticipated in the North County than in the South Coast subregion.
“The highest percentage of population growth is forecast in Santa Maria, Lompoc, and Goleta, where recent development activity, planned housing opportunities, and average household sizes support continued population increases.”
The municipality with the highest growth assumption is Santa Maria, projected to add 32,880 residents, or 29.3% by 2060.
Lompoc will add 11,790 people, an estimated 27% increase. Goleta will add 5,110, or 15.6%. Santa Barbara will add 5,120, or 5.9%.
Employment and households projected to increase
People need jobs, and the county in 2060 will have an estimated 278,970 of them. This represents a jump of 47,700 positions, or 21%, according to the forecast.
“Employment remains more concentrated on the South Coast,” according to the forecast, which describes job growth supported by commuters as outpacing population growth.
The number of households is expected to grow significantly as well. The county will add an estimated 37,590, a 24.6% increase.
In some places, households will grow at a rate that outpaces population growth.
“This is due to a few factors,” said Mia Lewis, SBCAG transportation planner. She said aging, smaller families and government efforts to address overcrowding will all play a part in the trend.
Population growth rates slow
The region’s population growth has slowed in the last three decades, according to SBCAG.
That’s consistent with long-term state and national trends, and with recent data as well.
Across the United States, population growth in fiscal year 2024-25 slowed the most since the early COVID-19 pandemic. The population rose by only 1.8 million people, or a mere 0.5%, according to the federal Census Bureau.
“The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025,” Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau, said in a statement.
“With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year,” she said, “the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason.”
